GTA 6 expected to cost US economy a billion dollars – but the math is shaky

A figure is currently making the rounds: The release of GTA 6 is expected to cost the US economy around one billion US dollars in productivity on launch day alone. Sounds like a headline – but does the calculation stand up to a second look? In short: probably not without further ado.

Where Does the Billion-Dollar Estimate Come From?

According to the available reports, the economist José García Montalvo is behind the figure. He is said to assume that around 1.5 million Americans intend to take time off for the launch day on November 19th. Based on an average annual output of approximately $70,000 per employee, this results in a short-term productivity loss of around two percent. Montalvo himself reportedly emphasizes that this is an academic projection and not an official forecast.

The news was disseminated, among others, by the New York Post, which in turn refers to the International Business Times. The Wall Street Journal additionally reported on a possible „Work Blackout”: Some companies are even said to be intentionally incorporating the GTA 6 launch day into their annual planning as a bonus vacation day.

Why Are There Doubts About the Figure?

The criticism focuses on several points. According to its own statements, the portal SVG could not independently verify the underlying study. The figure of 1.5 million absentees also apparently relies solely on this one estimate. Furthermore, there's a striking coincidence: the billion dollars the US is supposedly losing almost exactly matches the amount publisher Take-Two Interactive is likely to rake in on launch day.

Added to this is a simple consideration: Those who take time off for the release often catch up on their tasks on other days, and many employees would have taken the day off as vacation anyway. A real economic damage would therefore be significantly smaller than the extrapolation suggests. This is our assessment, not a verified figure.

What Does This Mean for You as a Player?

For you, the news doesn't change anything for now: The date is set, and interest is huge. Just how huge is shown in our report on the over 6 million digital pre-orders according to Sensor Tower. If you're still wondering which version is worth it, you can find our breakdown of the Standard or Ultimate Edition here.

From our perspective, the billion-dollar figure is primarily one thing: a clever hook. That GTA 6 will be an event where some bosses anticipate absences fits the hype – but the exact sum should be viewed with a good dose of skepticism. Whether millions of people will actually be absent on launch day, we will only see after November 19th.

Source: PC Games Hardware, TweakTown, SVG

Are you taking time off for the GTA 6 release? Let us know in the comments!