Activision: GTA 6 and MW4 Are 'The Two Biggest Games of the Year'

Activision is beating the drum for Modern Warfare 4: In an interview with The Game Business, Activision CMO Tyler Bahl speaks about a "Call of Duty tax" and calls GTA 6 and MW4 "the two biggest games of the year." MW4 is set to release on October 23, 2026, for PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Switch 2, and PC.

What does Activision mean by the "Call of Duty tax"?

According to Bahl, the franchise continues to be covered by traditional media – but because Call of Duty has existed for so long, many forget how much work goes into each installment. The massive target audience has become "status quo." His figures: 4,500 employees, 100 million free-to-play players, 500 million units sold, and over a billion downloads of the mobile game. This year's campaign is less bombastic and instead offers insights into the development and dedication of the teams.

Why Does Activision Call GTA 6 and MW4 the Biggest Games of the Year?

The interviewer referred to GTA 6 and the Zelda remake "Ocarina of Time" as the year's "Barbenheimer." Bahl countered: "No offense to Zelda," but GTA 6 and MW4 are the two biggest games of the year. More people would fire up their Xbox or PlayStation again, which brings attention. The social factor is also important – according to Activision research, "my friends are there" matters most, thanks also to crossplay, including Switch 2.

Regarding the GTA 6 release on November 19, Bahl says player numbers could decrease, but this isn't guaranteed – they might even see a slight increase because players could play both.

What Do Independent Analysts' Numbers Show?

Here, the outlook is less rosy. Circana analyst Mat Piscatella cites a purchase intent of 15 percent for MW4 among US console and PC players in August, compared to 21 percent for Black Ops 7 last year. The Zelda remake stands at 10 percent – but is rather impressive due to the smaller Switch 2 install base, according to Piscatella. He pointedly comments: Last year, Game Pass was to blame, now it's the media, and if MW4 disappoints, it will be GTA.

What Does This Mean for MW4 Players?

For you, little changes initially: All dates and preload info can be found in our Early Access and Times overview, and what's planned for DMZ is in our DMZ report. From our perspective, the strategy is clear: Activision wants to position MW4 against GTA 6 as a community experience. Whether that's enough will become clear in the weeks after launch.